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Showing posts with the label decision making

Anticipation: What's Behind the Door?

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Back in late 1990s and early 2000s, and to a lesser extent today, the Pointman was the SWAT officer who went into danger areas first. On my team, the position required a certain skillfulness with the ballistic shield and pole-mounted mirrors. Those of us desiring such a position often wore two (2) pistols...one (1) on each hip. Like Yosemite Sam. (It was easier to brandish a handgun, ambidextrously, while carrying the shield.) As a youngster to the police SWAT team, I dreamt of be assigned as "The Point." Within a few years, I was given the opportunity.  The Pointman was an awesome position. First off, it guaranteed that I was on the "entry team" that went into a building (as opposed to being stuck outside on the perimeter). I held the responsibility to maintain or adjust the speed. I got to pick whether the team moved left or right. Most importantly, it mean you were trusted by your teammates. And to me, that mattered. A lot.  The bittersweetness to the Pointman p...

Cynefin: The Tool That Doesn't "Do" Anything

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Ever since I was a little boy, I've been enamored with tools. I was raised alongside brothers by a mechanically-minded dad . Science, math & engineering classes always attracted me. As a current police officer, I resist my gravitation towards overly-simplistic technical solutions. My home garage has more hand tools than most in my generation. On this website, I write frequently about adaptive tools & smaller toolboxes .  What can I say? I just like tools.  Even though a mechanical, linear analogy doesn't quite fit, I've become more and more interested in mental and emotional "tools." This is especially true of my perspective on  mental and thinking models , on which I previously wrote: "Mental models  are etched patterns and worldview (often subconscious) that represent how various parts of reality connect, interact, relate, or work together. They are build through experience, exposure, faith, cognitive heuristics, storytel...

How to Grow Decisiveness in Your Team

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People who are reluctant to make decisions have been conditioned to behave that way. If you want these folks to make decisions, you'll have to overcome their ingrained fears & incentives . There are no shortcuts. However, I'd like to share a few things that have worked in growing decisiveness in teams of which I've been a member.  1. Discuss the relationship between available/perceived discretionary time & accuracy/reasonableness of the decision. These are two (2) different characteristics of a decision. Time relates to urgency. Basically, how much time do we have to consider the situation and options? Accuracy relates to how correct, while acknowledging that few options are as objective as answers to a math test. 2. Reward decisiveness, even potentially more than the quality of the decision. This is especially true if the situation is complicated , novel, complex, dynamic, or uncertain. Also, criticize or penalize (tactfully, of course) ind...

Mental Models & Thinking Models

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There is a lot of talk about "mental models " these days. I see disparity in how the term is used and defined. I offer this to the already-confusing discussion and debate: What I see is a commingling with something else that I refer to as thinking models... Mental models are etched patterns and worldview (often subconscious) that represent how various parts of reality connect, interact, relate, or work together. They are build through experience, exposure, faith, cognitive heuristics, storytelling, schemata, and imagery. We rely upon these models during intuitive, primal responses and reactions...but also arguably during rational, creative decision-making.  Thinking models are useful tools and frameworks that help us make conscious decisions. Examples: Cynefin ; OODA ; The Illinois Model ; PDCS; SARA; economics theories; generalism vs specialism ; systems thinking tools; political theories; geometric/algebraic formulas; risk management models; certain proce...

OODA: Framework of Frameworks

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If OODA is depicted (incorrectly) as a circle, it ignores so many of the pathways that keep it so universal. When I whiteboard OODA, I draw in lots of extra pieces. One (1) of them is a crystal ball along the arrow from Decide-to-Observe. I consider it the crystal ball feedback pathway. It's where options are pondered before commitment. It's how the actor is mentally rehearsing, simulating, modeling, forecasting, anticipating, using imagery, and even predicting. This crystal ball pathway is where Gary Klein's Recognition Primed Decision-Making (RPD/RPDM) sits. The actor pushes scenarios through hypotheses to find a suitable match - often the first match that is reasonably fit for the current situation. It's a lightning fast cycling through OOD-OOD-OOD...until a good enough option can be released forward into a committed decision. (Commitment of course being a relative term.) [above RPDM image attributed to Klein, 1983] Another aspect here is that of pa...

Adaptive Kids: Strategy vs Luck

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This is part of a new column/series called  Adaptive Kids . How can parents, coaches, school teachers, and other mentors help small children grow their own inner adaptability?  Can boardgames and card games be used to teach or develop adaptability?  First off, I want to specifically separate games that are based entirely on chance or luck from those requiring judgement, discretion, and strategy. Take a look at these games: Candyland War Snakes & Ladders (or as I knew it...Chutes & Ladders!)  HiHo Cherry-O As the wikipedia page for Candyland reads: Due to the design of the game, there is no strategy involved:   players are never required to make choices, just follow directions. What a perfectly-worded description for these sorts of games. There are no choices; only a slavish obedience to the roll of the dice, the draw of the cards, or the spin of the needle.  These are perfect entry games for small children. They l...

"Bounded Applicability" & "Conditionality"

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I first heard of the term Bounded Applicability last week, in Liminal Cynefin & 'control '  by Dave Snowden: ...with some exceptions few things are wrong, most are right within boundaries. To put it another way they are context specific not context free. Also, from the Cognitive Edge glossary: Bounded Applicability -- the concept that different and contradictory things work in different bounded spaces My mind immediately turned to parenting and teaching kids about dangers, hazards, and safety. I had been pondering the difficulty in talking to young children about when certain behaviors are acceptable and when they're not.  Don't walk in the street. Then have a block party where everyone is literally sitting on chairs in the roadway. Don't talk to strangers. Then strike up a conversation with some random guy in line at the deli counter.  Don't touch the BBQ grill. Then pick up the grates with your bare hands to wash them. Don't...

OODA: Magic, Mental Models, & Fake Orgasms

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Even though they can be seen as pure entertainment, I can't stand magicians or haunted houses. They manipulate and put all their effort into masking reality. They can't be trusted.  (Yeah yeah. I need to lighten-up.) US Air Force Colonel John Boyd is well-known for his OODA "loop." I internally cringe most every time I add "loop" after OODA, as only is bastardized four (4)-phase version is truly a cyclical loop. Boyd's original slide is a tad more beefy than that: Boyd's complete, unperverted OODA contains often forgotten about forward-feeding (right-pointing) pathways and feedback (left-pointing) pathways. These pathways don't necessarily cycle or progress in the sequential Observe-Orient-Decide-Act order like those abbreviated models you may have seen in business blogs.  We are continually recalling, refining, and creating decisions. Our brain picks apart our environment and situation...and builds options and new ideas fo...

Spotting The Undertaker

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I attended a funeral today where I knew very few of the fellow mourners. As I walked towards the church doors, from the crowd, I picked out The Undertaker. How is it that you can scan a crowd of strangers and in the snap of your fingers have your focus drawn to one particular person in one particular role? What is it that makes them an anomaly ?  For me, it used to be a subconscious recognition of The Undertaker at a funeral service. There wasn't a conscious thought that went into it...that is until I made mention of this among friends a few years ago. They soon agreed that they too could subconsciously spot The Undertaker. (And I bet you can too!)  Think about the characteristics of a funeral director at a wake or memorial service. Close your eyes and list observations that would make The Undertaker stand out from the rest of the mourners. Then come back to this blog... [Seriously. Close your eyes and image that.]  You may have not have ever consciously...