The Illinois Model

My kids are of the jiggle puzzle age. Huge puzzles. Miniature puzzles. Easy puzzles. Near-impossible puzzles. We've got got boxes and ziplock baggies full of puzzles...some even have all the pieces! I enjoy watching their different strategies. Separate out all the edges. Hunt for the corners. Sort by color...like the blue sky...the red bricks...the purple flower. Sometimes my kids even agree to work on a single puzzle together ! Last week, I watched as two (2) of my kids struggled together with one (1) such puzzle. They had each proudly assembled sizable chunks of pieces into discernible sections of the image. They were each individually hunting for more pieces to connect to their clusters... What they hadn't yet realized was that each of their chunks were ready to be connected to each other. What I saw next was both excitement and selfishness. Excited to see that they, together, were closer to completing the mission. Selfish in that they had each been work...

There is a lot of talk about "mental models " these days. I see disparity in how the term is used and defined. I offer this to the already-confusing discussion and debate: What I see is a commingling with something else that I refer to as thinking models... Mental models are etched patterns and worldview (often subconscious) that represent how various parts of reality connect, interact, relate, or work together. They are build through experience, exposure, faith, cognitive heuristics, storytelling, schemata, and imagery. We rely upon these models during intuitive, primal responses and reactions...but also arguably during rational, creative decision-making.  Thinking models are useful tools and frameworks that help us make conscious decisions. Examples: Cynefin ; OODA ; The Illinois Model ; PDCS; SARA; economics theories; generalism vs specialism ; systems thinking tools; political theories; geometric/algebraic formulas; risk management models; certain proce...

When I was transferred last year to supervise a detective squad, I knew one (1) of my missions was to nurture a mindset that appreciated complexity  and design.  Complexity is a word that most police detectives and analysts use quite frequently. It's usually used to describe criminal cases, trends, or gangs that have a large number of variables. But that's not how I see it. Those would be things that are complicated.  Now at the risk of sounding like a  Cynefin  kool-aid drinker (to which I openly admit that I taste from time to time), please understand that I specifically separate  complicated  from  complex . A huge financial crimes scheme tends to be more complicated than it is complex. It requires a structured, analytical, methodical mindset to seek and fit the pieces to see the whole puzzle. Detective solve these cases in sorta the same general methods. We even share labels for certain financial schemes that tightly fit specific ...

I attended a funeral today where I knew very few of the fellow mourners. As I walked towards the church doors, from the crowd, I picked out The Undertaker. How is it that you can scan a crowd of strangers and in the snap of your fingers have your focus drawn to one particular person in one particular role? What is it that makes them an anomaly ?  For me, it used to be a subconscious recognition of The Undertaker at a funeral service. There wasn't a conscious thought that went into it...that is until I made mention of this among friends a few years ago. They soon agreed that they too could subconsciously spot The Undertaker. (And I bet you can too!)  Think about the characteristics of a funeral director at a wake or memorial service. Close your eyes and list observations that would make The Undertaker stand out from the rest of the mourners. Then come back to this blog... [Seriously. Close your eyes and image that.]  You may have not have ever consciously...

My wife is an emergency room nurse.  She has a theory that the trauma bay is more likely to be empty during a televised Chicago Bulls game. What makes her believe this? Enough patients over the years who've told her they waited until the game was over to call the ambulance. Add in the reflection on consistently realizing that the trauma bay was less busy when the Bulls played. Then add the predictions proving true after the theory had been developed. And then sharing the theory with co-workers...who share their experiences.  ( Confirmation bias , anyone?? lol) So is my wife correct that her particular hospital emergency department occupancy is impacted by a basketball team's schedule? We don't know. Maybe the winter weather impacts it. Maybe the team's season's relative success is an added factor. But until you design the algorithm and input the data to disprove her, I'll believe her. I have nothing else to disprove her dozen years of experience!  Our ...

One way I help explain adaptability and complex systems is through imagery or heuristics of  linear  versus  non-linear structures.  Linear structures follow highly predictable pathways, such as step-by-step checklists. They have reliable inputs, efficient processes, and comfortably measured outputs.  Non-linear structures have multiple pathway options, and utilize flowcharts or branching diagrams. Furthermore, non-linear structures have varying levels of predictability - from highly regulated "closed-loop" systems to organic "open-loop" environments. (Open-vs-Closed discussion is best suited for another blog.) Let's stick with non-linear-closed-loop environments. I've been spending a lot of time visualizing these structures for not only the length of the factory assembly line, but also the variety or diversity in available options (width).  Take these three (3) games of chance: flipping a coin,  rolling a single six (6)-sided die...

When I first saw Dave Snowden's Cynefin framework, I was still detailed to the police department's SWAT unit. Of the various terms in his diagram, PROBE was certainly one that stood out more vividly than others: I immediately made a connection between probe and some specific strategies used in police tactical incidents. For my fellow SWAT knuckle-dragging operators out here, the practices of breach-and-hold , limited penetration , and of course stealth probing all came to mind. Let's use an example: Imagine a gunman holed up alone his home. Negotiators have been out of contact with him for several hours. There is little intelligence on where he may be inside...and just as little on the layout or floor plan of the home. What to do next?  My advice: probe. But what does probe look like in that context? It can take several forms (in as lay terms as possible): launching chemical projectiles inside to elicit a response from the gunman; break a window or o...

We are all biased into seeing things according to our expectations. Our expectations are formed by our experiences. Our experiences are stacks of the things we've seen. And the cycle continues... That is...until we interrupt this perverted repetition with reflection, analysis, or education.   The human brain interprets our environments and the things we encounter in clusters and clumps. The subconscious of our inner "caveman" uses mental shortcuts and patterns to make sense of things around us. As such, unless we intentionally hunt out fresh information (and have the knowledge to appreciate its   significance ) to form the best understanding of our situation, we may be seeing a distorted perception of reality. We live in a society of   specialists . We are athletes. Musicians. History buffs. Housewives. Financial planners. Computer geeks. Gourmet chefs. Gardeners. Hunters. Nurses. Cardiologists. Our specializations both   enlighten   us. And ...

I wonder how many cops, by the time they've read the title of this post, have already uttered the canned response... There's no such thing as a ROUTINE TRAFFIC STOP!   I write knowing full well that I am almost completely alone believing there actually exists such a thing as a ROUTINE TRAFFIC STOP . If we in police training are going to be effective at stopping violence and ambushes against police officers, the term should be embraced, not pushed away. Just give me a chance at changing your mind....I'm going to need all the help I can get to sway the rest of the three-quarters of a million American police officers who refuse to believe anything in our line of work is routine. Let's first get some formalities out of the way, so I can more succinctly defend my position. Allow me to bounce around for a bit.... Car Stops Cops quite frequently make contact with occupants of cars. It might be to help a motorist whose car is disabled along the roadway. Maybe resp...